Martin Fankhauser: Robust Bayesian Inference under Qualitative Restrictions on Economic Statistics

Seminars - PhD JM Practice Talk - Macroeconomics
(joint with PhD School, BAFFI - Centre on Economics, Finance and Regulation)
Speakers
Martin Fankhauser, Bocconi University
12:15pm - 1:30pm
Alberto Alesina Seminar Room 5.e4.sr04 - floor 5 - via Roentgen 1

Abstract: Modern macroeconomic identification increasingly sharpens inference by combining multiple economically motivated restrictions. However, more restrictions are not a free lunch: conclusions based on them depend crucially on their credibility. This paper develops a robust Bayesian framework for modeling partial credibility in set-identified models. Because the likelihood does not update the unidentified structural component, qualitative prior information on policy-relevant functionals can be imposed by reweighting baseline structural draws. Prior classes become linear restrictions on the weights, so posterior bounds are computed by linear programs. The framework links marginal-prior correction and full ambiguity robust Bayes inference, while allowing intermediate prior classes based on tail, moment, sign, or shape restrictions. The method shows that in oil-market SVARs, demand dominance is robust, while the near-irrelevance of supply shocks requires stringent elasticity-prior discipline. In monetary-policy SVARs, restrictions on policy statistics discipline inference about multipliers and policy implications.

For Information contact angela.baldassarre@unibocconi.it or giulia.zenoni@unibocconi.it