7TH WORKSHOP ON SUBJECTIVE EXPECTATIONS AND PhD MINICOURSE

06 June 2023

Bocconi University’s BAFFI CAREFIN Centre for Applied Research on International Markets, Money Banking and Regulation and Ettore Bocconi Department of Economics, joint with MiSoC ESRC Research Centre on Micro-Social Change at the University of Essex, organize the 7th Workshop on Subjective Expectations. The workshop is the seventh in a series of workshops on Subjective Expectations. Previous workshops have been held at Université Laval in Québec city (2009 and 2011), the University of Essex (2014), New York Federal Reserve Bank (2016), CESifo in Munich (2018), and virtually (2020). For the first time, this edition of the workshop will be followed by a Minicourse on Subjective Expectations in Economics for PhD students interested in the area.

Oganizing Committee:

Adeline Delavande – University of Technology Sydney

Pamela Giustinelli – Bocconi University

Basit Zafar – University of Michigan

Keynote Speakers:

Charles F. Manski - Northwestern University

Mirko Wiederholt - Ludwig-Maximilians-University Münich

Workshop Full Program here

PhD Minicourse Full Program here

7th Workshop on Subjective Expectations

JUNE 12-13, 2023

PROGRAM

Monday, June 12 - DAY 1

Welcome. Opening words by

Donato Masciandaro (Bocconi University, Department of Economics and Director of BAFFI CAREFIN)

Tito Boeri (Bocconi University, Department of Economics, Department Chair)

Adeline Delavande (University of Technology Sydney, Department of Economics, and University of Essex, MISOC)

Flash session I - EXPECTATIONS AND NEWS ABOUT LABOR MARKET AND FIRMS

Session chair: Adeline Delavande

Beliefs About Maternal Labor Supply

Teodora Boneva (University of Bonn), with Marta Golin (University of Zurich), Katja Kaufmann (Bayreuth University), and Christopher Rauh (University of Cambridge)

Biased Expectations and Labor Market Outcomes: Evidence from German survey data and implications for the East-West Wage Gap

Susanne Forstner (Institute for Advanced Studies Vienna), with Almut Balleer (RWTH Aachen University), Georg Duernecker (Goethe-University Frankfurt), and Johannes Goensch (Goethe-University Frankfurt)

Workers’ Perceptions of Earnings Growth and Employment Risk

Wilbert van der Klaauw (Federal Reserve Bank of New York), with Gizem Kosar (Federal Reserve Bank of New York)

Labor Market News and Expectations About Jobs & Earnings

Bernhard Schmidpeter (Johannes Kepler University Linz)

Firms’ Expectations and News: Micro v Macro

Manuel Menkhoff (ifo Institute and LMU Munich), with Benjamin Born (Frankfurt School of Finance & Management), Zeno Enders (Heidelberg University), Gernot J. Müller (University of Tübingen), and Knut Niemann (University of Tübingen)

Regular session I - INFORMATION FRICTIONS, EXPECTATIONS, AND BEHAVIOR

Session chair: Pamela Giustinelli

Spousal Errors in Social Security Benefits: Evidence from a Survey of Spouses

Gizem Kosar (Federal Reserve of New York), with Adeline Delavande (University of Technology Sydney) and Basit Zafar (University of Michigan)

Jobseekers' Beliefs about Comparative Advantage and (Mis)Directed Search

Lukas Hensel (Peking University), with Robert Garlick (Duke University), Andrea Kiss (Carnegie Mellon University), and Kate Orkin (University of Oxford)

Misattribution and Uncertainty about Beliefs Prevent Learning

Jessica B. Hoel (Colorado College), with Hope Michelson (University of Illinois), Ben Norton (Cornell University), and Victor Manyong (International Institute of Tropical Agriculture)

Keynote I - Boundedly Rational Formation of Expectations

Speaker: Charles F. Manski (Northwestern University)

Moderator: Basit Zafar

Flash session II - MEMORY, BELIEFS, AND FORECASTS ABOUT PRICES AND INFLATION

Session chair: Adeline Delavande

Stories, Statistics, and Memory

Christopher Roth (University of Cologne), with Thomas Graeber (Harvard University) and Florian Zimmermann (University of Bonn)

Memory & Beliefs: Evidence from the Field

Michael Weber (University of Chicago), with Francesco D'Acunto (Georgetown University)

Zero Lower Bound on Inflation Expectations

Dmitriy Sergeyev (Bocconi University), with Yuriy Gorodnichenko (University of California Berkeley)

Lumpy Forecasts

Javier Turen (Pontificia Universidad Catolica de Chile), with Isaac Baley (Universitat Pompeu Fabra)

Regular session II - FORECASTS AND THEIR RATIONALITY

Session chair: Pamela Giustinelli

The Coherence Side of Rationality: Rules of thumb, narrow bracketing, and managerial incoherence in corporate forecasts

Stefano Rossi (Bocconi University), with Pamela Giustinelli (Bocconi University)

Biased Surveys

Luca Gemmi (HEC Lausanne), with Rosen Valchev (Boston College)

Tuesday, June 13 - DAY 2

Regular session III - SUBJECTIVE EXPECTATIONS, HETEROGENEITY, AND LIFECYCLE MODELS

Session chair: Basit Zafar

Estimating Individual Responses when Tomorrow Matters

Angela Denis (Bank of Spain), with Stephane Bonhomme (University of Chicago)

Evaluating the accuracy of counterfactuals: Heterogeneous survival expectations in a life cycle model

Jochem de Bresser (Tilburg University)

Subjective Earnings Risk

Søren Leth-Petersen (University of Copenhagen), with Andrew Caplin (New York University), Victoria Gregory (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis), Eungik Lee (New York University), and Johan Sæverud (University of Copenhagen)

Keynote II - Macro Theory with Measured Expectations

Speaker: Mirko Wiederholt (Ludwig-Maximilians-University Münich)

Moderator: Adeline Delavande

Regular session IV - RECENT NEW APPROACHES

Session chair: Pamela Giustinelli

Identification of Ex Ante Returns Using Elicited Choice Probabilities

Romuald Meango (University of Oxford)

Narratives about the Macroeconomy

Johannes Wohlfart (University of Copenhagen), with Peter Andre (Institute on Behavior & Inequality), Ingar Haaland (NHH Norwegian School of Economics), and Christopher Roth (University of Cologne)

Confidence Levels and Likelihood Terms in IPCC Reports: A survey of experts from different scientific disciplines

Wändi Bruine de Bruin (University of Southern California), with A. Kause (Leuphana

University Lüneburg), J. Persson (Lund University), H. Thorén (University of Helsinki), L. Olsson (Lund University), A. Wallin (Lund University), S. Dessai (University of Leeds), N. Vareman (Lund University)

Flash session III - EXPECTATIONS RELATED TO HUMAN CAPITAL

Session chair: Basit Zafar

What Jobs Come to Mind? Stereotypes On Field of Study

John J. Conlon (Harvard University), with Dev Patel (Harvard University)

HeforShe: Bargaining Power, Parental Beliefs And Investment In Children

Adeline Delavande (University of Technology Sydney), with Alejandrina Cristia (Ecole Normale Superieure de Paris) Pauline Grosjean (University New South Wales), Sarah Walker (University of New South Wales)

Imprecise Probabilities and the Updating of Disease Risk Beliefs

Jason T. Kerwin (University of Minnesota), with Divya Pandey (University of Minnesota)

POSTERS

Determinants of Migration Choices: The Role of Beliefs about Pecuniary and Nonpecuniary Outcomes

Alaitz Ayarza-Astigarraga (European University Institute)

Biased Wage Expectations and Female Labor Supply

Maximilian Blesch (Humboldt University of Berlin), with Philipp Eisenhauer (Amazon), Peter Haan (Free University of Berlin), Boryana Ilieva (Humboldt University of Berlin), Annekatrin Schrenker (Free University of Berlin), and Georg Weizsacker (Humboldt University of Berlin)

Credit Market Experiences and Aggregate Expectations: Evidence and Theory

Josefina Cenzon (Universitat Pompeu Fabra)

Automation and Public Policy Preferences

Colombe Ladreit (Bocconi University)

Inaccuracies in Subjective Job Finding Probabilities and Job Search Decisions

Jiayi Lin (Universitat Pompeu Fabra), with Micol De Vera (CEMFI) and Javier Garcia-Brazales (Bocconi University and University of Exeter)

Thinking about Macro, Deep or Shallow?

Pierfrancesco Mei (Harvard University), with Linxuan Wu (Harvard University)

The Measurement of Labor Market Expectations of Persons with Disabilities in Canada

Cheikh A.M. Ndiaye (Laval University), with Charles Bellemare (Laval University) and Luc Bissonette (Laval University)

Estimating Production Functions with Expectations Data

Agnes Norris-Keiller (London School of Economics), with Aureo de Paula (University College London) and John van Reenen (Massachusetts Institute of Technology)

Thats What She Said: An Empirical Investigation on the Gender Gap in Inflation Expectations

Lovisa Reiche (University of Oxford)

Parent Beliefs and Parent Investments

Rachel Yi Tan (University College London)

Parental Beliefs, Perceived Health Risks, and Time Investment in Children: Evidence from COVID-19 Alessandro Toppeta (University College London), with Gabriella Conti (University College London) and Michele Giannola (University of Naples Federico II)

Bank Beliefs and Firm Lending: Evidence from Italian loan-level data

Jacopo Tozzo (Bocconi University and Bank of Italy), with Paolo Farroni (Bocconi University and Bank of Italy)

Pension and Long-Term Care Expectations: Evidence from Germany

Bruno Veltri (Humboldt University of Berlin), with Maximilian Blesch (Humboldt University of Berlin), Peter Haan (Free University of Berlin), and Georg Weizsacker (Humboldt University of Berlin)

The Part and The Whole: Unemployment Expectations Of The Employed

Inês Gonçalves Raposo (Bocconi University)

On the Decision-Relevance of Subjective Beliefs

Jeffrey Yang (Harvard University)

Mini Course on Subjective Expectations

JUNE 14, 2023

PROGRAM

Wednesday, June 14

Module 1 - HOW TO WRITE BETTER SURVEY QUESTIONS ABOUT SUBJECTIVE EXPECTATIONS

Speaker: Wändi Bruine de Bruin (University of Southern California)